NASA Assessments of Major Projects (GAO-26-108556)
SCALE
- $70 billion life-cycle cost across 36 major projects
- 18 projects in development, cumulative overruns $4.4bn → $4.7bn
- Orion: 52% of annual, ~73% of cumulative cost overruns
- Civil-servant workforce cut by ~22% (4,000+ staff) in 2025
PERFORMANCE ASPECT
- Cost & schedule performance of the 18 projects in development
- Acquisition-management challenges from the restructured Artemis campaign
- Effects of 2025 workforce reductions on portfolio management
- Individual assessments of 20 major projects/programs (appendix I)
1. Commercial Crew Program — Starliner anomaly investigation
Testing ¶117Responsibility ¶107Communication ¶99
"...a complex interplay of hardware failures, qualification gaps, leadership missteps, and cultural breakdowns that collectively posed
risks to crew safety."
p.61
- Testing — Insufficient thruster testing left NASA and Boeing with knowledge gaps about the propulsion system community
- Responsibility — Inadequate subcontractor oversight of Boeing's systems engineering
- Communication — NASA's own systems knowledge of Boeing's spacecraft was incomplete
2. Artemis architecture overhaul cascades across interdependent projects
Coordination ¶98Design ¶105-106
"Managing the changes described in the table presents a significant acquisition management challenge to NASA...
changes to one project may have cascading effects on another."
p.24
- Coordination — Gateway, SLS Block 1B and ML2 paused/cancelled while Orion, HLS and EGS must redesign interfaces simultaneously regulatory system
- Design — Interface rework driven by a December 2025 executive order redefining the lunar-return architecture
3. Workforce reductions erode project continuity (DAVINCI)
Guidance ¶108
"DAVINCI lost critical team members with leadership roles in program management and engineering to the deferred resignation program and was
unable to backfill the positions in fiscal year 2025."
p.32
- Human capital — Skills and knowledge-retention loss at Goddard Space Flight Center, forcing a rescope of risk-reduction work human capital regulatory system
- Guidance — A new NASA-wide directive to rebuild in-house technical roles responds to the gap
4. Roman Space Telescope — testing catches design flaws before launch
Testing ¶117Process optimization ¶126
"...during the SCIPA thermal vacuum testing, they identified
cryogenic frost (microscopic ice) buildup on the WFI detectors."
p.80
- Testing — A positive counter-example to the Starliner case: thermal vacuum testing worked exactly as intended, catching two design flaws pre-launch
- Process optimization — New decontamination-cycle procedures developed in response
5. Dragonfly — an external agency's data invalidates the operating plan
"NASA project officials were informed by the Department of Energy that
the MMRTG will produce less thermal power than the project requires under the current concept of operations."
p.66
- Asset — The radioisotope power source is a shared, externally-supplied asset NASA does not itself control asset
- Domain knowledge — Technical dependency surfaces at an interagency boundary rather than within NASA's own chain domain knowledge
- Stakeholders — Department of Energy, as a fellow federal agency, is an under-examined stakeholder stakeholders
6. Rosalind Franklin Support — a funding lapse delays a nuclear license
Coordination ¶98
"ROSA's top risk is the delay in receiving nuclear launch authorization... The selection was
delayed by 3 months because of the government shutdown."
p.81
- Regulatory system — A government-wide appropriations lapse propagates into a project-specific licensing delay regulatory system
- Coordination — Launch-vehicle selection and the Department of Energy's nuclear-authorization schedule are sequentially dependent
7. Mars Sample Return — cancelled before alternatives were evaluated
Handover ¶125Results review ¶124
"NASA began
closing out the program before it completed its assessment of these options."
p.73
- Handover / Results review — Closeout initiated ahead of the NASA-led vs. commercial-lander cost comparison meant to inform it
- Human capital — Engineering expertise dispersed mid-decision human capital
- Finance — Cancellation driven by an affordability threshold finance
8. Orion dominates portfolio-wide cost and schedule metrics
Reporting ¶101
"Orion's overruns account for
52 percent of the portfolio's annual cost overruns," and its departure will remove "approximately $3.5 billion... or 73 percent of the current portfolio's total development cost overruns."
pp.16, 19
- Reporting — A single dominant project distorts aggregate portfolio metrics, masking the other 17 projects' performance
- Finance — Baselines need to be read project-by-project, not only in the aggregate finance
9. Earth-science instruments under funding and currency pressure
"...tracking a risk to its cost reserves due to the
exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the euro, which is increasing the cost of work completed by European contractors."
p.69
- Nature — GRACE-C and SBG-TIR monitor water, ice mass and land-surface change nature
- Stakeholders — International partners DLR (Germany) and ASI (Italy) stakeholders
- Finance — Currency risk runs alongside, not instead of, domestic budget exposure finance
Control focus
| ICS phase | Control function | Cases |
|---|---|---|
| Functions applied to all stages | Communication | 1. Commercial Crew Program — Starliner anomaly investigation |
| Coordination | 2. Artemis architecture overhaul cascades across interdependent projects 6. Rosalind Franklin Support — a funding lapse delays a nuclear license | |
| Reporting | 8. Orion dominates portfolio-wide cost and schedule metrics | |
| Initial phase | Responsibility | 1. Commercial Crew Program — Starliner anomaly investigation |
| Design | 2. Artemis architecture overhaul cascades across interdependent projects | |
| Guidance | 3. Workforce reductions erode project continuity (DAVINCI) | |
| Production phase (work processes) | Testing | 1. Commercial Crew Program — Starliner anomaly investigation 4. Roman Space Telescope — testing catches design flaws before launch |
| Completion of process | Results review | 7. Mars Sample Return — cancelled before alternatives were evaluated |
| Handover | 7. Mars Sample Return — cancelled before alternatives were evaluated | |
| Process optimization | 4. Roman Space Telescope — testing catches design flaws before launch |
Entity-in-environment frequency (ICS)
finance × 4 regulatory system × 3 human capital × 3 stakeholders × 2
Compliance focus
- NASA Space Flight Program and Project Management Requirements, Procedural Requirements 7120.5F — defines the project life cycle, key decision points, and category cost thresholds.
- Statutory replan/rebaseline and congressional-notification thresholds for development cost growth (15%/30%) and schedule slippage (6 months).
- House/Senate explanatory statements establishing GAO's annual major-projects reporting mandate.
- Executive order directing government-wide federal workforce reductions.
- Executive order on space policy directing NASA to pursue a permanent lunar outpost, triggering the Gateway pause.
- Commerce, Justice, Science; Energy and Water Development; and Interior and Environment Appropriations Act, 2026.